| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCA bilateral |$\times$| DCAs | 0.020|$^{***}$| | 0.029|$^{***}$| | 0.018|$^{***}$| | 0.020|$^{***}$| |
| third-party | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) |
| DCA bilateral | |$-$|0.020|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.026|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.017|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.019|$^{***}$| |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | |
| DCAs third-party | 0.009|$^{***}$| | 0.025|$^{***}$| | 0.008|$^{***}$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
| Trade | 0.002|$^{***}$| | 0.002|$^{***}$| | 0.002|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | ||
| UNGA ideal point diff. | |$-$|0.009|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.008|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.008|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | ||
| Alliance | 0.016|$^{***}$| | 0.015|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Democracy|$_i$| | |$-$|0.010|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.009|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.012|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Democracy|$_j$| | |$-$|0.004|$^{*}$| | |$-$|0.004|$^{*}$| | |$-$|0.006|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Capabilities|$_i$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Capabilities|$_j$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| GDPcapita|$_i$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| | 0.002 | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | ||
| GDPcapita|$_j$| | 0.002 | 0.002 | |$-$|0.002 | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | ||
| Total ICEWS events | 0.019|$^{***}$| | 0.017|$^{***}$| | 0.018|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
| Defense cooperation | 0.089|$^{***}$| | |||
| (lagged DV) | (0.002) | |||
| Constant | 0.095|$^{***}$| | 0.026|$^{***}$| | 0.083|$^{**}$| | 0.153|$^{***}$| |
| (0.027) | (0.000) | (0.027) | (0.032) | |
| N | 315,650 | 462,400 | 315,650 | 315,650 |
| BIC | |$-$|268,041.041 | |$-$|370,959.109 | |$-$|269,948.725 | |$-$|268,343.430 |
| N dyads | 22,532 | 29,070 | 22,532 | 22,532 |
| Log-likelihood | 134,121.820 | 185,505.643 | 135,081.993 | 134,361.651 |
| |$\omega _{ij}$| | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| |$\alpha (u_i,u_j)$| | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| Model | FE | FE | FE | 2FE |
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCA bilateral |$\times$| DCAs | 0.020|$^{***}$| | 0.029|$^{***}$| | 0.018|$^{***}$| | 0.020|$^{***}$| |
| third-party | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) |
| DCA bilateral | |$-$|0.020|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.026|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.017|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.019|$^{***}$| |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | |
| DCAs third-party | 0.009|$^{***}$| | 0.025|$^{***}$| | 0.008|$^{***}$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
| Trade | 0.002|$^{***}$| | 0.002|$^{***}$| | 0.002|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | ||
| UNGA ideal point diff. | |$-$|0.009|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.008|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.008|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | ||
| Alliance | 0.016|$^{***}$| | 0.015|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Democracy|$_i$| | |$-$|0.010|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.009|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.012|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Democracy|$_j$| | |$-$|0.004|$^{*}$| | |$-$|0.004|$^{*}$| | |$-$|0.006|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Capabilities|$_i$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Capabilities|$_j$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| GDPcapita|$_i$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| | 0.002 | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | ||
| GDPcapita|$_j$| | 0.002 | 0.002 | |$-$|0.002 | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | ||
| Total ICEWS events | 0.019|$^{***}$| | 0.017|$^{***}$| | 0.018|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
| Defense cooperation | 0.089|$^{***}$| | |||
| (lagged DV) | (0.002) | |||
| Constant | 0.095|$^{***}$| | 0.026|$^{***}$| | 0.083|$^{**}$| | 0.153|$^{***}$| |
| (0.027) | (0.000) | (0.027) | (0.032) | |
| N | 315,650 | 462,400 | 315,650 | 315,650 |
| BIC | |$-$|268,041.041 | |$-$|370,959.109 | |$-$|269,948.725 | |$-$|268,343.430 |
| N dyads | 22,532 | 29,070 | 22,532 | 22,532 |
| Log-likelihood | 134,121.820 | 185,505.643 | 135,081.993 | 134,361.651 |
| |$\omega _{ij}$| | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| |$\alpha (u_i,u_j)$| | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| Model | FE | FE | FE | 2FE |
Standard errors in parentheses.
|$^{*}$| |$p\lt 0.05$|, |$^{**}$| |$p\lt 0.01$|, |$^{***}$| |$p\lt 0.001$|.
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCA bilateral |$\times$| DCAs | 0.020|$^{***}$| | 0.029|$^{***}$| | 0.018|$^{***}$| | 0.020|$^{***}$| |
| third-party | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) |
| DCA bilateral | |$-$|0.020|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.026|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.017|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.019|$^{***}$| |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | |
| DCAs third-party | 0.009|$^{***}$| | 0.025|$^{***}$| | 0.008|$^{***}$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
| Trade | 0.002|$^{***}$| | 0.002|$^{***}$| | 0.002|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | ||
| UNGA ideal point diff. | |$-$|0.009|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.008|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.008|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | ||
| Alliance | 0.016|$^{***}$| | 0.015|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Democracy|$_i$| | |$-$|0.010|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.009|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.012|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Democracy|$_j$| | |$-$|0.004|$^{*}$| | |$-$|0.004|$^{*}$| | |$-$|0.006|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Capabilities|$_i$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Capabilities|$_j$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| GDPcapita|$_i$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| | 0.002 | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | ||
| GDPcapita|$_j$| | 0.002 | 0.002 | |$-$|0.002 | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | ||
| Total ICEWS events | 0.019|$^{***}$| | 0.017|$^{***}$| | 0.018|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
| Defense cooperation | 0.089|$^{***}$| | |||
| (lagged DV) | (0.002) | |||
| Constant | 0.095|$^{***}$| | 0.026|$^{***}$| | 0.083|$^{**}$| | 0.153|$^{***}$| |
| (0.027) | (0.000) | (0.027) | (0.032) | |
| N | 315,650 | 462,400 | 315,650 | 315,650 |
| BIC | |$-$|268,041.041 | |$-$|370,959.109 | |$-$|269,948.725 | |$-$|268,343.430 |
| N dyads | 22,532 | 29,070 | 22,532 | 22,532 |
| Log-likelihood | 134,121.820 | 185,505.643 | 135,081.993 | 134,361.651 |
| |$\omega _{ij}$| | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| |$\alpha (u_i,u_j)$| | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| Model | FE | FE | FE | 2FE |
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCA bilateral |$\times$| DCAs | 0.020|$^{***}$| | 0.029|$^{***}$| | 0.018|$^{***}$| | 0.020|$^{***}$| |
| third-party | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) |
| DCA bilateral | |$-$|0.020|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.026|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.017|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.019|$^{***}$| |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | |
| DCAs third-party | 0.009|$^{***}$| | 0.025|$^{***}$| | 0.008|$^{***}$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
| Trade | 0.002|$^{***}$| | 0.002|$^{***}$| | 0.002|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | ||
| UNGA ideal point diff. | |$-$|0.009|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.008|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.008|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | ||
| Alliance | 0.016|$^{***}$| | 0.015|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Democracy|$_i$| | |$-$|0.010|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.009|$^{***}$| | |$-$|0.012|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Democracy|$_j$| | |$-$|0.004|$^{*}$| | |$-$|0.004|$^{*}$| | |$-$|0.006|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Capabilities|$_i$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| Capabilities|$_j$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | 0.010|$^{***}$| | 0.011|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||
| GDPcapita|$_i$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| | 0.006|$^{***}$| | 0.002 | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | ||
| GDPcapita|$_j$| | 0.002 | 0.002 | |$-$|0.002 | |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | ||
| Total ICEWS events | 0.019|$^{***}$| | 0.017|$^{***}$| | 0.018|$^{***}$| | |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
| Defense cooperation | 0.089|$^{***}$| | |||
| (lagged DV) | (0.002) | |||
| Constant | 0.095|$^{***}$| | 0.026|$^{***}$| | 0.083|$^{**}$| | 0.153|$^{***}$| |
| (0.027) | (0.000) | (0.027) | (0.032) | |
| N | 315,650 | 462,400 | 315,650 | 315,650 |
| BIC | |$-$|268,041.041 | |$-$|370,959.109 | |$-$|269,948.725 | |$-$|268,343.430 |
| N dyads | 22,532 | 29,070 | 22,532 | 22,532 |
| Log-likelihood | 134,121.820 | 185,505.643 | 135,081.993 | 134,361.651 |
| |$\omega _{ij}$| | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| |$\alpha (u_i,u_j)$| | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| Model | FE | FE | FE | 2FE |
Standard errors in parentheses.
|$^{*}$| |$p\lt 0.05$|, |$^{**}$| |$p\lt 0.01$|, |$^{***}$| |$p\lt 0.001$|.
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